22/06/2024
we'll get agi soon and because scaling works it will probably be developed by one of the companies with the most compute. i.e. alphabet (deepmind, anthropic), meta, microsoft (openai), or xAI. most likely achieving agi will be a gradual process and all or several of these companies will do well. it's possible a smaller lab jumps ahead despite having less compute if they achieve an algorithmic improvement. how u should invest/trade given this information is up to you some ppl think it doesn't matter how u invest in agi because we'll get ubi or all die or something, but it seems likely we'll get a moderate or slow takeoff which means we should have a period of at least years where this stuff matters and anyway since agi is gauranteed u should invest in it even if there's a significant chance that there's no payoff. (0.9 * 0 + 0.1 * 100) > 0, after all. anyway u should expect things like massive inflation, total unemployment, and big leaps in technology.